2052

In 1972, the Club of Rome published The Limits to Growth – a pioneering study on the dangers of unconstrained population and economic growth. The report proposed methods by which citizens could live a good life that was equitable and ecologically regenerative. The message was positive and optimistic: while highlighting deep a problem, the authors also suggested a constructive solution.

The study was received with denial. Critics refused to listen to what they deemed to be a ‘doomsday fantasy’, arguing that technology would remove perceived planetary constraints and that the global population and economy should grow unhindered forever. Only today are its predictions being seen clearly.

Forty years later, the Norwegian Jørgen Randers, co-author of The Limits to Growth, published a new study looking forward another forty years. Reflecting on the insubstantial efforts in averting climate crisis since the seventies, Randers predicted what the world would look like in 2052.

As the mechanisms of economic growth falter, the world population will plateau. A stagnation in productivity in mature economies will hamper global GDP growth, poverty will persist in the world’s most vulnerable communities. Consumption will flatline. Governments will divert vast resources to repair and adaptation in the face of climate breakdown. All this will drive a seismic shift in focus away from GDP growth only, to growth in human wellbeing and ecological regeneration – good growth.

So what will urban planning look like in 2052? What factors determine what happens to a site, or city when economic growth is no longer the dominant goal and human flourishing and ecological regeneration matter most? How do we take the first step towards long-term envisioning for alternative urban futures? How do we measure success in relation to human well-being?

The day

Planning 2052 will turn the tables on conventional ways of anticipating the future. Instead of starting with the question of ‘how to get there’, we will take imaginative jumps, assuming that positive changes are already widespread realities, mixing inspiring discussions with inventive formats to think boldly. 

While our focus is the future, urban planning and economic breakthroughs taking place today hint at routes through the challenges ahead. The Greater London Authority’s Good Growth strategy draws a clear line under the atomised economic growth which The Club of Rome warned of. Oslo has been named European Green Capital for 2019 and the city has many ambitious plans in the pipeline that confirm its status as a pioneer in sustainable development. Framing these examples with the question of what comes next, we will hear from local and international leaders who are rejecting the status quo.

Planning 2052 will be a day of both serious and adventurous discussion among inspiring peers and creative collaborators. We know the status quo is faltering, together we can envisage the role of urban planning in the future.

Programme

Morning Session 9.30 - 13.00